The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Navigating a Post-Globalized Era
Some insights from a complex and fascinating read
The global order established by the United States after World War II has shaped the world as we know it. But as the book "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" suggests, this era is ending.
Some agree with these thoughts by Peter Zeihan.
I’m one of those that has a great deal of confidence in his words. I first came across Peter Zeihan rather late via Modern Wisdom: #514 - Peter Zeihan - The Old World Order Is About To Collapse. I’d recommend you listen (and Chris Williamson is one of the best podcast hosts around).
The world of the past few decades has been the best it will ever be in our lifetime. Instead of cheap and better and faster, we’re rapidly transitioning into a world that’s pricier and worse and slower. Because the world—our world—is breaking apart.
In short, globalised supply chains are breaking as the USA withdraws from the world stage - although this book was written and completed as the Russian invasion of Ukraine started). And in recent days, we’ve seen the US increasingly press forward with more budget allocation to defence which might signal they are halting or reversing this position.
But - let’s stick to the book and what I found insightful - because you might too.
Demographic Shifts: The book highlights the declining birth rates and aging populations worldwide, leading to potential population crashes and labor shortages. Countries like Japan and China face particularly challenging demographic situations, with Japan's aging population and China's rapid population collapse. It’s not just Asia - European population collapse is happening now - only the US seemingly as the resilience to prevent this from happening. I know - this defies all we know but this quote is illustrates the scenario:
Eventually gains in longevity max out, leaving a country a greater population, but with few children. Yesterday’s few children leads to today’s few young workers leads to tomorrow’s few mature workers. And now, at long last, tomorrow has arrived.
Deglobalization and the Disruption of Supply Chains: As globalization unwinds, complex supply chains may break down, causing countries to bring manufacturing in-house if they can. This could lead to more localized and self-sufficient economies, with potential winners and losers depending on their position in global shipping routes and resource access. However, geography will be the ultimate decider as shipping routes become more dangerous and it could become impossible to source certain materials.
Deglobalization doesn’t simply mean a darker, poorer world, it means something far worse. An unraveling.
The Future of Energy and Resources: The book emphasizes that the transition to greentech is incomplete, and we are far from being "done" with oil. Moreover, the supply chains for critical materials like lithium and cobalt face challenges that may hinder the shift to a more sustainable future. The future of energy production could be more diversified and dependent on regional resources.
The Rise of Regional Manufacturing: In a post-globalized world, manufacturing processes may shift to larger core facilities and smaller facilities producing customized parts. North America, for example, could see a resurgence in manufacturing due to its favourable demographics and resources.
The Future of Agriculture and Food Security: The book warns of the vulnerability of global food systems and the geopolitics of food production. In a world with fewer foodstuffs, technologies that increase yields will be prioritised but the unravelling of other systems, such as global banking, may prohibit the expensive outlay of such technologies.
Oh man - that was a doom and gloom newsletter but I’d highly recommend you check this book out.
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